Publications (10)
The Rise and Possible Decline of Societal Complexity
Theodore Modis
Societal complexity may be at a historical peak. Distinct from entropy, complexity tends to rise as systems move away from order, crest at an intermediate state, and decline as ent…
Complexity in the Wake of Artificial Intelligence
Theodore Modis
This study aims to evaluate quantitatively, albeit in arbitrary units, the evolution of complexity of the human system since the domestication of fire. This is made possible by stu…
American society keeps a lid on the number of deaths from guns and car accidents but not from mass shootings
Theodore Modis
The number of deaths from car accidents and from the unlawful use of guns can be described by logistic growth curves. The annual rates of both have traced completed logistic trajec…
Forecasting Energy Needs with Logistics
Theodore Modis
The logistic function is used to forecast energy consumed worldwide and oil production in the U.S. The logistic substitution model is used to describe the energy mix since 1965 pre…
The Preponderance of Electric Vehicles and the Availability of Green Electricity
Theodore Modis
The main advantage of electric vehicles, namely, their non-polluting operation, is compromised when the electricity they use comes from burning fossil fuels. The number of electric…
Forecasting the Mix of World Energy Needs by mid-21st Century
Theodore Modis
The logistic function is used to forecast energy consumed worldwide. The logistic substitution model is used to describe the energy mix since 1965 presenting a picture significantl…
A Hard-Science Approach to Kondratieff's Economic Cycle
Theodore Modis
In an effort to evidence the Kondratieff cycle more scientifically than the way economists do, physical variables are studied rather than monetary indicators. Previously published…
The Normal, the Natural, and the Harmonic
Theodore Modis
Use is made of rigorous definitions for the terms normal, natural, and harmonic to reveal a number of unfamiliar aspects about them. The Gaussian distribution is not sufficient to…
Links between Entropy, Complexity, and the Technological Singularity
Theodore Modis
Entropy always increases monotonically in a closed system but complexity increases at first and then decreases as equilibrium is approached. Commonsense information-related definit…
Forecasting: theory and practice
Fotios Petropoulos, Daniele Apiletti, Vassilios Assimakopoulos +77
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organ…