Publications (7)
Differences between the true reproduction number and the apparent reproduction number of an epidemic time series
Oliver Eales, Steven Riley
The time-varying reproduction number measures the number of new infections per infectious individual and is closely correlated with the time series of infection incidence by…
Key challenges for the surveillance of respiratory viruses: transitioning out of the acute phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
Oliver Eales, Michael J. Plank, Benjamin J. Cowling +8
To support the ongoing management of viral respiratory diseases, many countries are moving towards an integrated model of surveillance for SARS-CoV-2, influenza, and other respirat…
Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in European countries: technical description update
Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy +20
Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have imple…
Evaluating Large Language Models for Public Health Classification and Extraction Tasks
Joshua Harris, Timothy Laurence, Leo Loman +18
Advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have led to significant interest in their potential to support human experts across a range of domains, including public health. In this wo…
Infectious disease surveillance needs for the United States: lessons from COVID-19
Marc Lipsitch, Mary T. Bassett, John S. Brownstein +27
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to upgrade systems for infectious disease surveillance and forecasting and modeling of the spread of infection, both of which inform…
Cellular reproduction number, generation time and growth rate differ between human- and avian-adapted influenza strains
Ada W. C. Yan, Jie Zhou, Catherine A. A. Beauchemin +3
When analysing in vitro data, growth kinetics of influenza strains are often compared by computing their growth rates, which are sometimes used as proxies for fitness. However, ana…