Publications (59)
Algorithmic bottlenecks in evolution: Genetic code, symbolic language, and the Great Filter hypothesis
Mikhail Prokopenko, Nihat Ay, Angelica Breviario +12
The Great Filter hypothesis proposes that the emergence of technological societies capable of interstellar travel depends on a small number of exceptionally hard and highly improba…
Simulation leagues: Analysis of competition formats
David Budden, Peter Wang, Oliver Obst +1
The selection of an appropriate competition format is critical for both the success and credibility of any competition, both real and simulated. In this paper, the automated parall…
Thermodynamic efficiency of interactions in self-organizing systems
Ramil Nigmatullin, Mikhail Prokopenko
The emergence of global order in complex systems with locally interacting components is most striking at criticality, where small changes in control parameters result in a sudden g…
Measuring unequal distribution of pandemic severity across census years, variants of concern and interventions
Quang Dang Nguyen, Sheryl L. Chang, Christina M. Jamerlan +1
Diverse and complex intervention policies deployed over the last years have shown varied effectiveness in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. However, a systematic analysis and mode…
The impact of social influence in Australian real-estate: market forecasting with a spatial agent-based model
Benjamin Patrick Evans, Kirill Glavatskiy, Michael S. Harré +1
Housing markets are inherently spatial, yet many existing models fail to capture this spatial dimension. Here we introduce a new graph-based approach for incorporating a spatial co…
Differentiating information transfer and causal effect
Joseph T. Lizier, Mikhail Prokopenko
The concepts of information transfer and causal effect have received much recent attention, yet often the two are not appropriately distinguished and certain measures have been sug…
Bounded strategic reasoning explains crisis emergence in multi-agent market games
Benjamin Patrick Evans, Mikhail Prokopenko
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH), based on rational expectations and market equilibrium, is the dominant perspective for modelling economic markets. However, the most notable…
The effects of local homogeneity assumptions in metapopulation models of infectious disease
Cameron Zachreson, Sheryl Chang, Nathan Harding +1
Computational models of infectious disease can be broadly categorized into two types: individual-based (Agent-based), or compartmental models. While compartmental models can be str…
Information ratchets exploiting spatially structured information reservoirs
Richard E. Spinney, Mikhail Prokopenko, Dominique Chu
Information ratchets extract work from heat baths using low entropy information reservoirs. We find that the structure of the reservoirs affects both their performance and phase di…
A maximum entropy model of bounded rational decision-making with prior beliefs and market feedback
Benjamin Patrick Evans, Mikhail Prokopenko
Bounded rationality is an important consideration stemming from the fact that agents often have limits on their processing abilities, making the assumption of perfect rationality i…
Information Transfer in Swarms with Leaders
Yu Sun, Louis F. Rossi, Chien-Chung Shen +5
Swarm dynamics is the study of collections of agents that interact with one another without central control. In natural systems, insects, birds, fish and other large mammals functi…
Gliders2d: Source Code Base for RoboCup 2D Soccer Simulation League
Mikhail Prokopenko, Peter Wang
We describe Gliders2d, a base code release for Gliders, a soccer simulation team which won the RoboCup Soccer 2D Simulation League in 2016. We trace six evolutionary steps, each of…
Game theoretic modelling of infectious disease dynamics and intervention methods: a mini-review
Sheryl L. Chang, Mahendra Piraveenan, Philippa Pattison +1
We review research papers which use game theory to model the decision making of individuals during an epidemic, attempting to classify the literature and identify the emerging tren…
Local information transfer as a spatiotemporal filter for complex systems
Joseph T. Lizier, Mikhail Prokopenko, Albert Y. Zomaya
We present a measure of local information transfer, derived from an existing averaged information-theoretical measure, namely transfer entropy. Local transfer entropy is used to pr…
The effects of imitation dynamics on vaccination behaviours in SIR-network model
Sheryl L. Chang, Mahendra Piraveenan, Mikhail Prokopenko
We present a series of SIR-network models, extended with a game-theoretic treatment of imitation dynamics which result from regular population mobility across residential and work…
Entropy balance and Information processing in bipartite and non-bipartite composite systems
Richard E. Spinney, Joseph T. Lizier, Mikhail Prokopenko
Information dynamics is an emerging description of information processing in complex systems which describes systems in terms of intrinsic computation, identifying computational pr…
Thermodynamic efficiency of self-organisation in nonequilibrium steady states
Qianyang Chen, Mikhail Prokopenko
Active matter generates order or patterns through nonequilibrium dynamics. An open research challenge is to determine how efficiently a nonequilibrium self-organising system can co…
An Information Criterion for Inferring Coupling in Distributed Dynamical Systems
Oliver M. Cliff, Mikhail Prokopenko, Robert Fitch
The behaviour of many real-world phenomena can be modelled by nonlinear dynamical systems whereby a latent system state is observed through a filter. We are interested in interacti…
Disruptive innovations in RoboCup 2D Soccer Simulation League: from Cyberoos'98 to Gliders2016
Mikhail Prokopenko, Peter Wang
We review disruptive innovations introduced in the RoboCup 2D Soccer Simulation League over the twenty years since its inception, and trace the progress of our champion team (Glide…
Simulating transmission scenarios of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia
Sheryl L. Chang, Oliver M. Cliff, Cameron Zachreson +1
An outbreak of the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant of SARS-CoV-2 that began around mid-June 2021 in Sydney, Australia, quickly developed into a nation-wide epidemic. The ongoing epidemic…
Transfer entropy in continuous time, with applications to jump and neural spiking processes
Richard E. Spinney, Mikhail Prokopenko, Joseph T. Lizier
Transfer entropy has been used to quantify the directed flow of information between source and target variables in many complex systems. While transfer entropy was originally formu…
A general framework for optimising cost-effectiveness of pandemic response under partial intervention measures
Quang Dang Nguyen, Mikhail Prokopenko
The COVID-19 pandemic created enormous public health and socioeconomic challenges. The health effects of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were often contrast…
Thermodynamics of emergent structure in active matter
Emanuele Crosato, Mikhail Prokopenko, Richard E. Spinney
Active matter is rapidly becoming a key paradigm of out-of-equilibrium soft matter exhibiting complex collective phenomena, yet the thermodynamics of such systems remain poorly und…
On critical dynamics and thermodynamic efficiency of urban transformations
Emanuele Crosato, Ramil Nigmatullin, Mikhail Prokopenko
Urban transformations within large and growing metropolitan areas often generate critical dynamics affecting social interactions, transport connectivity and income flow distributio…
Thermodynamics and computation during collective motion near criticality
Emanuele Crosato, Richard E. Spinney, Ramil Nigmatullin +2
We study self-organisation of collective motion as a thermodynamic phenomenon, in the context of the first law of thermodynamics. It is expected that the coherent ordered motion ty…
Bounded rationality for relaxing best response and mutual consistency: The Quantal Hierarchy model of decision-making
Benjamin Patrick Evans, Mikhail Prokopenko
While game theory has been transformative for decision-making, the assumptions made can be overly restrictive in certain instances. In this work, we investigate some of the underly…
Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia
Sheryl L. Chang, Nathan Harding, Cameron Zachreson +2
There is a continuing debate on relative benefits of various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19. Here we report the results of agent-base…
Self-referential basis of undecidable dynamics: from The Liar Paradox and The Halting Problem to The Edge of Chaos
Mikhail Prokopenko, Michael Harré, Joseph Lizier +3
In this paper we explore several fundamental relations between formal systems, algorithms, and dynamical systems, focussing on the roles of undecidability, universality, diagonaliz…
Arrow's Impossibility Theorem as a Generalisation of Condorcet's Paradox
Ori Livson, Mikhail Prokopenko
Arrow's Impossibility Theorem is a seminal result of Social Choice Theory that demonstrates the impossibility of ranked-choice decision-making processes to jointly satisfy a number…
Creating a surrogate commuter network from Australian Bureau of Statistics census data
Kristopher M. Fair, Cameron Zachreson, Mikhail Prokopenko
Between the 2011 and 2016 national censuses, the Australian Bureau of Statistics changed its anonymity policy compliance system for the distribution of census data. The new method…
Investigating Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics in Australia: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach
Oliver M. Cliff, Nathan Harding, Mahendra Piraveenan +3
In this paper we present ACEMod, an agent-based modelling framework for studying influenza epidemics in Australia. The simulator is designed to analyse the spatiotemporal spread of…
Are motorways rational from slime mould's point of view?
Andrew Adamatzky, Selim Akl, Ramon Alonso-Sanz +12
We analyse the results of our experimental laboratory approximation of motorways networks with slime mould Physarum polycephalum. Motorway networks of fourteen geographical areas a…
Inferring Coupling of Distributed Dynamical Systems via Transfer Entropy
Oliver M. Cliff, Mikhail Prokopenko, Robert Fitch
In this work, we are interested in structure learning for a set of spatially distributed dynamical systems, where individual subsystems are coupled via latent variables and observe…
A framework for the local information dynamics of distributed computation in complex systems
Joseph T. Lizier, Mikhail Prokopenko, Albert Y. Zomaya
The nature of distributed computation has often been described in terms of the component operations of universal computation: information storage, transfer and modification. We rev…
Complex Networks
Carlos Gershenson, Mikhail Prokopenko
Introduction to the Special Issue on Complex Networks, Artificial Life journal.
Persistence of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia: The impact of fluctuating social distancing
Sheryl L. Chang, Quang Dang Nguyen, Alexandra Martiniuk +3
We modelled emergence and spread of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia between December 2021 and June 2022. This pandemic stage exhibited a diverse epidemiological prof…
Biological arrow of time: Emergence of tangled information hierarchies and self-modelling dynamics
Mikhail Prokopenko, Paul C. W. Davies, Michael Harré +6
We study open-ended evolution by focusing on computational and information-processing dynamics underlying major evolutionary transitions. In doing so, we consider biological organi…
RoboCup 2D Soccer Simulation League: Evaluation Challenges
Mikhail Prokopenko, Peter Wang, Sebastian Marian +3
We summarise the results of RoboCup 2D Soccer Simulation League in 2016 (Leipzig), including the main competition and the evaluation round. The evaluation round held in Leipzig con…
Urbanization affects peak timing, prevalence, and bimodality of influenza pandemics in Australia: results of a census-calibrated model
Cameron Zachreson, Kristopher M. Fair, Oliver M. Cliff +3
We examine salient trends of influenza pandemics in Australia, a rapidly urbanizing nation. To do so, we implement state-of-the-art influenza transmission and progression models wi…
Genome-wide networks reveal emergence of epidemic strains of Salmonella Enteritidis
Adam J. Svahn, Sheryl L. Chang, Rebecca J. Rockett +7
Objectives: To enhance monitoring of high-burden foodborne pathogens, there is opportunity to combine pangenome data with network analysis. Methods: Salmonella enterica subspecies…
Comparing and Contrasting Arrow's Impossibility Theorem and Gödel's Incompleteness Theorem
Ori Livson, Mikhail Prokopenko
Incomputability results in Formal Logic and the Theory of Computation (i.e., incompleteness and undecidability) have deep implications for the foundations of mathematics and comput…
Impact of network assortativity on epidemic and vaccination behaviour
Sheryl L. Chang, Mahendra Piraveenan, Mikhail Prokopenko
The resurgence of measles is largely attributed to the decline in vaccine adoption and the increase in mobility. Although the vaccine for measles is readily available and highly su…
The Non-Orientable Topology of Condorcet's Paradox
Ori Livson, Siddharth Pritam, Mikhail Prokopenko
Preference cycles are prevalent in problems of decision-making, and are contradictory when preferences are assumed to be transitive. This contradiction underlies Condorcet's Parado…
Generalising thermodynamic efficiency of interactions: inferential, information-geometric and computational perspectives
Qianyang Chen, Nihat Ay, Mikhail Prokopenko
Self-organizing systems consume energy to generate internal order. The concept of thermodynamic efficiency, drawing from statistical physics and information theory, has previously…
Revealing configurational attractors in the evolution of modern Australian and US cities
Bohdan Slavko, Kirill Glavatskiy, Mikhail Prokopenko
The spatial structure of modern cities exhibits highly diverse patterns and keeps evolving under numerous constraints. Two key dimensions have recently achieved prominence in chara…
Fractals2019: Combinatorial Optimisation with Dynamic Constraint Annealing
Mikhail Prokopenko, Peter Wang
Fractals2019 started as a new experimental entry in the RoboCup Soccer 2D Simulation League, based on Gliders2d code base, and advanced to become a RoboCup-2019 champion. We employ…
Simulation leagues: Enabling replicable and robust investigation of complex robotic systems
David M Budden, Peter Wang, Oliver Obst +1
Physically-realistic simulated environments are powerful platforms for enabling measurable, replicable and statistically-robust investigation of complex robotic systems. Such envir…
Explaining herding and volatility in the cyclical price dynamics of urban housing markets using a large scale agent-based model
Kirill S. Glavatskiy, Mikhail Prokopenko, Adrian Carro +2
Urban housing markets, along with markets of other assets, universally exhibit periods of strong price increases followed by sharp corrections. The mechanisms generating such non-l…
Multi-scale phylodynamic modelling of rapid punctuated pathogen evolution
Quang Dang Nguyen, Sheryl L. Chang, Carl J. E. Suster +4
Computational multi-scale pandemic modelling remains a major and timely challenge. Here we identify specific requirements for a new class of models simulating pandemics across thre…
Thermodynamic efficiency of contagions: A statistical mechanical analysis of the SIS epidemic model
Nathan Harding, Ramil Nigmatullin, Mikhail Prokopenko
We present a novel approach to the study of epidemics on networks as thermodynamic phenomena, considering the thermodynamic efficiency of contagions, considered as distributed comp…
Why collective behaviours self-organise to criticality: A primer on information-theoretic and thermodynamic utility measures
Qianyang Chen, Mikhail Prokopenko
Collective behaviours are frequently observed to self-organise to criticality. Existing proposals to explain these phenomena are fragmented across disciplines and only partially an…
How will mass-vaccination change COVID-19 lockdown requirements in Australia?
Cameron Zachreson, Sheryl L. Chang, Oliver M. Cliff +1
Background: To prevent future outbreaks of COVID-19, Australia is pursuing a mass-vaccination approach in which a targeted group of the population comprising healthcare workers, ag…
Beyond COVID-19: Network science and sustainable exit strategies
James Bell, Ginestra Bianconi, David Butler +11
On May and , a two day workshop was held virtually, facilitated by the Beyond Center at ASU and Moogsoft Inc. The aim was to bring together leading scientists wi…
Impact of opinion dynamics on recurrent pandemic waves: balancing risk aversion and peer pressure
Sheryl L. Chang, Quang Dang Nguyen, Carl J. E. Suster +6
Recurrent waves which are often observed during long pandemics typically form as a result of several interrelated dynamics including public health interventions, population mobilit…
Gliders2012: Development and Competition Results
Edward Moore, Oliver Obst, Mikhail Prokopenko +2
The RoboCup 2D Simulation League incorporates several challenging features, setting a benchmark for Artificial Intelligence (AI). In this paper we describe some of the ideas and to…
An Ansatz for computational undecidability in RNA automata
Adam J. Svahn, Mikhail Prokopenko
In this Ansatz we consider theoretical constructions of RNA polymers into automata, a form of computational structure. The basis for transitions in our automata are plausible RNA e…
Informative and misinformative interactions in a school of fish
Emanuele Crosato, Li Jiang, Valentin Lecheval +5
It is generally accepted that, when moving in groups, animals process information to coordinate their motion. Recent studies have begun to apply rigorous methods based on Informati…
The Polycentric Dynamics of Melbourne and Sydney: Suburb attractiveness divides a city at the home ownership level
Emanuele Crosato, Mikhail Prokopenko, Michael S. Harré
Urban dynamics in large metropolitan areas result from complex interactions across social, economic, and political factors, including population distribution, flows of wealth, and…
Diffusive resettlement: irreversible urban transitions in closed systems
Bohdan Slavko, Mikhail Prokopenko, Kirill S. Glavatskiy
We propose a phenomenological non-equilibrium framework for modelling the evolution of cities which describes the intra-urban resettlement as an irreversible diffusive process. We…