Publications (14)
Week 1 Influenza Forecast for the 2012-2013 U.S. Season
Jeffrey Shaman, Alicia Karspeck, Marc Lipsitch
This is part of a series of weekly influenza forecasts made during the 2012-2013 influenza season. Here we present results of forecasts initiated following assimilation of observat…
Focusing Viral Risk Ranking Tool on Prediction
Katherine Budeski, Marc Lipsitch
Preparing to rapidly respond to emerging infectious diseases is becoming ever more critical. "SpillOver: Viral Risk Ranking" is an open-source tool developed to evaluate novel wild…
On the relative role of different age groups during epidemics associated with the respiratory syncytial virus
Edward Goldstein, Hieu H. Nguyen, Patrick Liu +4
Background: While RSV circulation results in high burden of hospitalization, particularly among infants, young children and the elderly, little is known about the role of different…
Week 50 Influenza Forecast for the 2012-2013 U.S. Season
Jeffrey Shaman, Alicia Karspeck, Marc Lipsitch
We present results of a forecast initiated following assimilation of observations for week Week 50 (i.e. the forecast begins December 16, 2012) of the 2012-2013 influenza season fo…
How should we select test-negative controls? A causal perspective in the era of multiplex respiratory testing
Christopher B. Boyer, Kendrick Qijun Li, Xu Shi +2
The test-negative design (TND) is widely used to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) for respiratory pathogens by comparing vaccination odds among test-positive cases versus test-n…
Defining and Estimating Outcomes Directly Averted by a Vaccination Program when Rollout Occurs Over Time
Katherine M. Jia, Christopher B. Boyer, Alyssa Bilinski +1
During the COVID-19 pandemic, estimating the total deaths averted by vaccination has been of great public health interest. Instead of estimating total deaths averted by vaccination…
Novel Methods for the Analysis of Stepped Wedge Cluster Randomized Trials
Lee Kennedy-Shaffer, Victor De Gruttola, Marc Lipsitch
Stepped wedge cluster randomized trials (SW-CRTs) have become increasingly popular and are used for a variety of interventions and outcomes, often chosen for their feasibility adva…
Week 52 Influenza Forecast for the 2012-2013 U.S. Season
Jeffrey Shaman, Alicia Karspeck, Marc Lipsitch
This document is another installment in a series of near real-time weekly influenza forecasts made during the 2012-2013 influenza season. Here we present some of the results of for…
Generation interval contraction and epidemic data analysis
Eben Kenah, Marc Lipsitch, James M. Robins
The generation interval is the time between the infection time of an infected person and the infection time of his or her infector. Probability density functions for generation int…
Equity considerations in COVID-19 vaccine allocation modelling: a literature review
Eva Rumpler, Marc Lipsitch
We conducted a literature review of COVID-19 vaccine allocation modelling papers, specifically looking for publications that considered equity. We found that most models did not ta…
Antimicrobial resistance and use, and rates of hospitalization associated with bacterial infections, including sepsis
Edward Goldstein, Derek R. MacFadden, Marc Lipsitch
While the mechanisms and quantitative details are complex, few analysts would doubt that antibiotic use increases the prevalence of drug-resistant bacterial pathogens among all bac…
Inferring infectiousness: a joint model of the within-host viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2
Christopher B. Boyer, Stephen M. Kissler, Seran Hakki +3
During an infectious disease outbreak, providing accurate answers to policy questions about transmission requires a detailed model of the natural history of infectiousness. Unfortu…
Infectious disease surveillance needs for the United States: lessons from COVID-19
Marc Lipsitch, Mary T. Bassett, John S. Brownstein +27
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to upgrade systems for infectious disease surveillance and forecasting and modeling of the spread of infection, both of which inform…
Week 51 Influenza Forecast for the 2012-2013 U.S. Season
Jeffrey Shaman, Alicia Karspeck, Marc Lipsitch
This document is part of a series of near real-time weekly influenza forecasts made during the 2012-2013 influenza season. Here we present results of a forecast initiated following…