papers

Publications (6)

astro-ph.SR2015

The Maunder minimum (1645--1715) was indeed a Grand minimum: A reassessment of multiple datasets

Ilya G. Usoskin, Rainer Arlt, Eleanna Asvestari +13

Aims: Although the time of the Maunder minimum (1645--1715) is widely known as a period of extremely low solar activity, claims are still debated that solar activity during that pe…

physics.ao-ph2009

Improving the expected accuracy of forecasts of future climate using a simple bias-variance tradeoff

Stephen Jewson, Ed Hawkins

We describe a simple method that utilises the standard idea of bias-variance trade-off to improve the expected accuracy of numerical model forecasts of future climate. The method c…

physics.ao-ph2009

Improving Uncertain Climate Forecasts Using a New Minimum Mean Square Error Estimator for the Mean of the Normal Distribution

Stephen Jewson, Ed Hawkins

When climate forecasts are highly uncertain, the optimal mean squared error strategy is to ignore them. When climate forecasts are highly certain, the optimal mean squared error st…

astro-ph2001

The luminosity dependence of clustering

Ed Hawkins

The PSCz redshift survey and the ongoing Two-Degree Field Galaxy Redshift Survey (2dFGRS) are used to look for luminosity dependence of galaxy clustering by measuring the two point…

astro-ph2004

The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: Clustering properties of radio galaxies

Manuela Magliocchetti, Steve J. Maddox, Ed Hawkins +24

The clustering properties of local, S_{1.4 GHz} > 1 mJy, radio sources are investigated for a sample of 820 objects drawn from the joint use of the FIRST and 2dF Galaxy Redshift su…

physics.ao-ph2009

CMIP3 ensemble spread, model similarity, and climate prediction uncertainty

Stephen Jewson, Ed Hawkins

The CMIP3 multi-model ensemble spread most likely underestimates the real model uncertainty in future climate predictions because of the similarity, and shared defects, of the mode…