Publications (40)
Focused Information Criteria for Semiparametric Linear Hazard Regression
Axel Gandy, Nils Lid Hjort
The semiparametric linear hazard regression model introduced by McKeague and Sasieni (1994) is an extension of the linear hazard regression model developed by Aalen (1980). Methods…
Semi-Mechanistic Bayesian Modeling of COVID-19 with Renewal Processes
Samir Bhatt, Neil Ferguson, Seth Flaxman +3
We propose a general Bayesian approach to modeling epidemics such as COVID-19. The approach grew out of specific analyses conducted during the pandemic, in particular an analysis c…
Importance subsampling for power system planning under multi-year demand and weather uncertainty
Adriaan P Hilbers, David J Brayshaw, Axel Gandy
This paper introduces a generalised version of importance subsampling for time series reduction/aggregation in optimisation-based power system planning models. Recent studies indic…
On the derivation of the renewal equation from an age-dependent branching process: an epidemic modelling perspective
Swapnil Mishra, Tresnia Berah, Thomas A. Mellan +6
Renewal processes are a popular approach used in modelling infectious disease outbreaks. In a renewal process, previous infections give rise to future infections. However, while th…
Scoring Predictions at Extreme Quantiles
Axel Gandy, Kaushik Jana, Almut E. D. Veraart
Prediction of quantiles at extreme tails is of interest in numerous applications. Extreme value modelling provides various competing predictors for this point prediction problem. A…
Can a latent Hawkes process be used for epidemiological modelling?
Stamatina Lamprinakou, Axel Gandy, Emma McCoy
Understanding the spread of COVID-19 has been the subject of numerous studies, highlighting the significance of reliable epidemic models. Here, we introduce a novel epidemic model…