GIC--Related Observations During the May 2024 Geomagnetic Storm in the United States

Abstract

The May 2024 geomagnetic storm was one of the most severe in the past 20~years. Understanding how large geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) impact geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) within electrical power grid networks is key to ensuring their resilience. We have assembled and synthesized a large and unique set of GMD-related data, compared model predictions with measurements, and identified empirical relationships for GICs in the contiguous United States for this storm. Measurement data include GIC data from $47$ sites and magnetometer data from $17$ sites. Model data include GIC computed by the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) power system operators at $4$ sites, GIC computed using a reference model at $47$ sites, and the difference in the surface magnetic field from a baseline ($\hat{I}”\mathbf{B}$) computed at $12$ magnetometer sites from three global magnetospheric models -- the Multiscale Atmosphere-Geospace Environment Model (MAGE), Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and Open Geospace General Circulation Model (OpenGGCM). GIC measured and computed by TVA had a correlation coefficient $\text{r}>0.8$ and a prediction efficiency between 0.4 and 0.7. The horizontal magnetic field perturbation from a baseline, $\hat{I}”B_H$, computed by MAGE, SWMF, and OpenGGCM had a correlation r from $0.21$ to $0.65$. Two empirical relationships were considered: (1) how the correlation between measured GIC site pairs depended on differences in site separation distance, ${\hat{I}}^2$ scaling factor (related to ground conductivity), and geomagnetic latitude; and (2) a regression model for the maximum $\mbox{GIC}$ magnitude at each site given the product of $\hat{I}\pm$ (related to magnetic latitude) and ${\hat{I}}^2$.

32 pages, 10 figures