Publications (53)
Statistical physics approaches to the complex Earth system
Jingfang Fan, Jun Meng, Josef Ludescher +5
Global climate change, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying natural disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear feedbacks, strategi…
Scaling Laws in Earthquake Memory for Interevent Times and Distances
Yongwen Zhang, Jingfang Fan, Warner Marzocchi +4
Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a…
PCDCNet: A Surrogate Model for Air Quality Forecasting with Physical-Chemical Dynamics and Constraints
Shuo Wang, Yun Cheng, Qingye Meng +6
Air quality forecasting (AQF) is critical for public health and environmental management, yet remains challenging due to the complex interplay of emissions, meteorology, and chemic…
Network-based Approach and Climate Change Benefits for Forecasting the Amount of Indian Monsoon Rainfall
Jingfang Fan, Jun Meng, Josef Ludescher +5
The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has a decisive influence on India's agricultural output and economy. Extreme deviations from the normal seasonal amount of rainfall can ca…
Complexity based approach for El Nino magnitude forecasting before the "spring predictability barrier"
Jun Meng, Jingfang Fan, Josef Ludescher +5
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most prominent interannual climate phenomena. An early and reliable ENSO forecasting remains a crucial goal, due to its seriou…
The Interdecadal Bipolar Oscillation: An Atmospheric Water Vapor Mode Driving Asynchronous Polar Climate Change
Hongyu Wang, Jingfang Fan, Fei Xie +5
Climate change is progressing asynchronously between the Arctic and Antarctic, with important implications for global climate dynamics. While the Arctic has experienced rapid warmi…
Climate network percolation reveals the expansion and weakening of the tropical component under global warming
Jingfang Fan, Jun Meng, Yosef Ashkenazy +2
Global climate warming poses a significant challenge to humanity; it is associated with, e.g., rising sea level and declining Arctic sea ice. Increasing extreme events are also con…
Spectral condensation in a finite nonequilibrium atmospheric transition
Dan Zhao, Yongwen Zhang, Teng Liu +3
Order parameters are difficult to define in high-dimensional nonequilibrium systems that lack a Hamiltonian, a thermodynamic limit or an observed control coordinate. Here we show t…
Dynamic Arctic weather variability and connectivity
Jun Meng, Jingfang Fan, Uma S Bhatt +1
The rapidly shrinking Arctic sea ice is changing weather patterns and disrupting the balance of nature. Dynamics of Arctic weather variability (WV) plays a crucial role in weather…
A Regime Shift in Atlantic Surface Currents Reveals a Step-like Decline of the Meridional Overturning Circulation
Han Huang, Ningning Tao, Hongyu Wang +8
The Atlantic surface currents associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) play a central role in regulating Earth's climate, yet their large scale dynami…
Forecasting Return Time of Extreme Precipitation by Large Deviation Theory
Haotian Xie, Haoxian Liu, Jingfang Fan +1
Forecasting extreme precipitation is essential yet challenging due to its rarity and complexity. We develop a large deviation framework to estimate the return times of extreme prec…
Criticality and Universality of Generalized Kuramoto Model
Zhongpu Qiu, Tianyi Wu, Sheng Fang +2
We explore synchronization transitions in even--dimensional generalized Kuramoto oscillators on both complete graphs and -dimensional lattices. In the globally coupled system…
Planetary climate interactions of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau
Ziyan Wang, Teng Liu, Shang Wang +10
The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), Earth's "Third Pole", profoundly shapes the Asian monsoon and regional climate and exerts far-reaching influence on the global climate system. Ye…
Universal Scaling of Gap Dynamics in Percolation
Sheng Fang, Qing Lin, Jun Meng +4
Percolation is a cornerstone concept in physics, providing crucial insights into critical phenomena and phase transitions. In this study, we adopt a kinetic perspective to reveal t…
Geometry of commutes in the universality of percolating traffic flows
Sasan Ebrahimabadi, Ali Hosseiny, Jingfang Fan +1
Traffic congestion is a major problem in megacities which increases vehicle emissions and degrades ambient air quality. Various models have been developed to address the universal…
Regional Greening as a `Positive' Tipping Phenomenon
Yu Sun, Teng Liu, Shang Wang +9
Earth system tipping elements have been predominantly investigated for their potential to trigger \textit{negative} ecological, climatic, and societal shifts. Yet, an overlooked bu…
Global Patterns of Extreme Temperature Teleconnections Using Climate Network Analysis
Yuhao Feng, Jun Meng, Jingfang Fan
Extreme weather events, rare yet profoundly impactful, are often accompanied by severe conditions. Increasing global temperatures are poised to exacerbate these events, resulting i…
A combined network and machine learning approaches for product market forecasting
Jingfang Fan, Keren Cohen, Louis M. Shekhtman +4
Sustainable financial markets play an important role in the functioning of human society. Still, the detection and prediction of risk in financial markets remain challenging and dr…
Climate network and complexity based El Niño forecast for 2022
Josef Ludescher, Jun Meng, Jingfang Fan
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various part…
Resilience of networks with community structure behaves as if under an external field
Gaogao Dong, Jingfang Fan, Louis M. Shekhtman +6
Detecting and characterizing community structure plays a crucial role in the study of networked systems. However, there is still a lack of understanding of how community structure…
Physics-Guided Inductive Spatiotemporal Kriging for PM2.5 with Satellite Gradient Constraints
Shuo Wang, Mengfan Teng, Yun Cheng +8
High-resolution mapping of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a cornerstone of sustainable urbanism but remains critically hindered by the spatial sparsity of ground monitoring net…
Significant Impact of Rossby Waves on Air Pollution Detected by Network Analysis
Yongwen Zhang, Jingfang Fan, Xiaosong Chen +2
Air pollution is associated with human diseases and has been found to be related to premature mortality. In response, environmental policies have been adopted in many countries, to…
Long-term prediction of ENSO with physics-guided Deep Echo State Networks
Zejing Zhang, Jun Meng, Zhongpu Qiu +9
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual climate variability, yet the mechanisms limiting its long-lead predictability remain unclear. Here we dev…
General Clique Percolation in Network Evolution
Jingfang Fan, Xiaosong Chen
We introduce a general clique community, which consists of adjacent -cliques sharing at least vertices with . The emergence of a giant cliqu…
Crossover Finite-Size Scaling Theory and Its Applications in Percolation
Ming Li, Sheng Fang, Jingfang Fan +1
Finite-size scaling (FSS) for a critical phase transition () states that within a window of size , the scaling behavior of any observable in a system of…
Teleconnections among Tipping Elements in the Earth System
Teng Liu, Dean Chen, Lan Yang +10
Tipping elements of the Earth system may shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another at tipping points, resulting in a growing threat to our society. Yet, it is not f…
Improved Earthquake Forecasting Model Based on Long-term Memory in Earthquake
Yongwen Zhang, Dong Zhou, Jingfang Fan +3
A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, like the EpidemicType Aftershock…
Unraveling the mystery of tropical monsoon long-term prediction
Guanghao Ran, Jun Meng, Jingfang Fan
Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction rema…
Social physics
Marko Jusup, Petter Holme, Kiyoshi Kanazawa +12
Recent decades have seen a rise in the use of physics methods to study different societal phenomena. This development has been due to physicists venturing outside of their traditio…
Continuous percolation phase transitions of random networks under a generalized Achlioptas process
Jingfang Fan, Maoxin Liu, Liangsheng Li +1
Using the finite-size scaling, we have investigated the percolation phase transitions of evolving random networks under a generalized Achlioptas process (GAP). During this GAP, the…
Network approach reveals the spatiotemporal influence of traffic to air pollution under the COVID-19
Weiping Wang, Saini Yang, Kai Yin +3
Air pollution causes widespread environmental and health problems and severely hinders the life quality of urban residents. Traffic is a critical for human life and its emissions a…
Percolation framework to describe El Niño conditions
Jun Meng, Jingfang Fan, Yosef Ashkenazy +1
Complex networks have been used intensively to investigate the flow and dynamics of many natural systems including the climate system. Here, we develop a percolation based measure,…
Emergence of scaling in dockless bike-sharing systems
Ruiqi Li, Ankang Luo, Fan Shang +6
Fundamental laws of human mobility have been extensively studied, yet we are still lacking a comprehensive understanding of the mobility patterns of sharing conveyances. Since trav…
Criticality and reduced dynamical resilience in PM2.5 pollution systems
Yuan Chen, Yongwen Zhang, Xu Li +5
The paper introduces a finite-memory multiplicative reversion model to link the lognormal distribution of PM2.5 concentrations with temporal memory, variance amplification, and loc…
Is the atmospheric river operating at a self-organized criticality state?
Shang Wang, Jun Meng, Sheng Fang +4
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are essential components of the global hydrological cycle, with profound implications for water resources, extreme weather events, and climate dynamics. Ye…
Continuous Percolation Phase Transitions of Two-dimensional Lattice Networks under a Generalized Achlioptas Process
Maoxin Liu, Jingfang Fan, Liangsheng Li +1
The percolation phase transitions of two-dimensional lattice networks under a generalized Achlioptas process (GAP) are investigated. During the GAP, two edges are chosen randomly f…
Long-Range Order in Coupled -dimensional Kuramoto Oscillators
Zhongpu Qiu, Tianyi Wu, Linkai Zhang +4
We show that the long-range order (LRO) strikingly emerges in systems of locally coupled -dimensional vector Kuramoto oscillators on low-dimensional lattices (), but only…
Global River Forecasting with a Topology-Informed AI Foundation Model
Hancheng Ren, Gang Zhao, Shuo Wang +11
River systems operate as inherently interconnected continuous networks, meaning river hydrodynamic simulation ought to be a systemic process. However, widespread hydrology data sca…
Intra-annual Principal Modes and Evolution Mechanism of the El Nino Southern Oscillation
Yongwen Zhang, Jingfang Fan, Xiaoteng Li +2
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important phenomena in climate. By studying the fluctuations of surface air temperature within one year between 1979-01-0…
Climate network and complexity based ENSO forecast for 2026
Josef Ludescher, Jun Meng, Jingfang Fan +2
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events such as droughts or flooding. Recen…
Unveiling the Importance of Nonshortest Paths in Quantum Networks
Xinqi Hu, Gaogao Dong, Kim Christensen +7
Quantum networks (QNs) exhibit stronger connectivity than predicted by classical percolation, yet the origin of this phenomenon remains unexplored. We apply a statistical physics m…
Revealing spatio-temporal interaction patterns behind complex cities
Chenxin Liu, Yu Yang, Bingsheng Chen +4
Cities are typical dynamic complex systems that connect people and facilitate interactions. Revealing universal collective patterns behind spatio-temporal interactions between resi…
Possible Origin of Memory in Earthquakes: Real catalogs and ETAS model
Jingfang Fan, Dong Zhou, Louis M. Shekhtman +5
Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural disasters that plague society. A skilled, reliable earthquake forecasting remains the ultimate goal for seismologists. Using the…
Climate network suggests enhanced El Niño global impacts in localized areas
Jingfang Fan, Jun Meng, Yosef Ashkenazy +1
We construct directed and weighted climate networks based on near surface air temperature to investigate the global impacts of El Nino and La Nina. We find that regions which are c…
Resilience of spatial networks with inter-links behaving as an external field
Jingfang Fan, Gaogao Dong, Louis M. Shekhtman +4
Many real systems such as, roads, shipping routes, and infrastructure systems can be modeled based on spatially embedded networks. The inter-links between two distant spatial netwo…
An inevitably aging world -- Analysis on the evolutionary pattern of age structure in 200 countries
Jiajun Ma, Qinghua Chen, Xiaosong Chen +3
Ignoring the differences between countries, human reproductive and dispersal behaviors can be described by some standardized models, so whether there is a universal law of populati…
Abrupt transitions in collaborative social networks
Jingfang Fan, Jun Meng, Yimin Ding +6
Despite the wide use of networks as a versatile tool for exploring complex social systems, little is known about how to detect and forecast abrupt changes in social systems. In thi…
Tipping Points and Cascading Transitions: Methods, Principles, and Evidences
Sheng Fang, Ziyan Wang, Jürgen Kurths +1
This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics a…
Eigen Microstates and Their Evolution of Global Ozone at Different Geopotential Heights
Xiaojie Chen, Na Ying, Dean Chen +4
Studies on stratospheric ozone have attracted much attention due to its serious impacts on climate changes and its important role as a tracer of Earth's global circulation. Troposp…
Percolation Framework of the Earth's Topography
Jingfang Fan, Jun Meng, Abbas Ali Saberi
Self-similarity and long-range correlations are the remarkable features of the Earth's surface topography. Here we develop an approach based on percolation theory to study the geom…
Correlation and scaling behaviors of concentration in China
Yongwen Zhang, Dean Chen, Jingfang Fan +2
Air pollution has become a major issue and caused widespread environmental and health problems. Aerosols or particulate matters are an important component of the atmosphere and can…
Emergence of universal scaling in weather extreme events
Qing Yao, Jingfang Fan, Jun Meng +4
The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistica…
Forecasting the magnitude and onset of El Nino based on climate network
Jun Meng, Jingfang Fan, Yosef Ashkenazy +2
El Nino is probably the most influential climate phenomenon on interannual time scales. It affects the global climate system and is associated with natural disasters and serious co…